The 2011 Iowa straw poll crowned Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) as its winner Saturday. Nearly 17,000 people cast ballots in the non-binding vote that gave Bachmann 4,823 votes, or 28.55 percent. In second place was Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 4,671 votes (27.65 percent).
There were two surprising results. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty only managed 13.57 percent of the votes despite being from a neighboring state. Gov. Rick Perry of Texas got 718 votes as a write-in candidate when he declared his intentions to run for president in South Carolina.
The Iowa straw poll has set up some interesting scenarios for the Republican primary election cycle beginning in January.
Pawlenty Drops Out
Pawlenty dropped out of the race the day after the straw poll, according to The Associated Press. He thought he was a rational choice, but at this point in the election cycle voters are thinking with their emotions. His campaign knew Pawlenty was in trouble when a candidate from Texas with a more conservative base earned more than double his vote total.
Pawlenty's supporters now have to rally around another candidate. Thirteen percent of a voting bloc is still a huge chunk that can make or break someone's election cycle. If the remaining GOP hopefuls are smart, their next step will be to get a handle on Pawlenty's supporters through a long primary campaign.
Lincoln Day Dinner
Perry threw his weight into the race hundreds of miles away in a conservative Southern state. When he announced his intentions to run for president, Perry spent his time bashing Obama and how the Texas governor would make a better president.
Iowa is still fresh on the minds of many candidates. At the 4th annual Lincoln Day dinner in Waterloo, Perry and Bachmann are both going to speak at the fundraising event. Perry comes from a huge state, is used to prolonged political fights and will not back down from Bachmann. Having two strong candidates in the same place will be a gold mine of publicity for both strong-willed people as they spar to become the GOP nominee.
What About Mitt Romney?
Mitt Romney has been on the sidelines of the Iowa straw poll; he didn't make an appearance. Yet he has still been in Iowa making waves. His appearance at the Iowa State Fair sparked a debate over Social Security and higher taxes for corporations. Business Insider reports several people in the crowd challenged his assertion that "corporations are people" when referring to raising taxes on the rich.
Romney's ad-lib exchange with voters may be a harbinger for the candidate. He's great for making speeches and getting into policy debates. Romney is articulate and well-spoken. Get him in a spontaneous question-and-answer session, though, and it appears he may have trouble.
Sarah Palin Factor
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is doing the same thing as Romney. She's quietly on the sidelines, still drumming up support. She too was at the Iowa State Fair when a two-month lull in the "One Nation" bus tour ended abruptly. Palin also stopped at the boyhood home of Ronald Reagan.
The Los Angeles Times reports Palin is still dodging questions from the media, calling some of their issues "ridiculous." Instead of making a relevant appearance at the Iowa straw poll, Palin continues to live in the past as she visits historical sites across America. She also continues to ask for donations.
Palin will be the wild card in the race no one talked about in Ames. Like Romney, she has issues with spontaneous questions, such as her famous "Paul Revere" response in Boston several months ago.
Wide-Open Race
Despite weeding out Pawlenty from the pool of GOP candidates, there are still plenty more who need supporters. Now that Perry is also in the race, mainstream candidates such as Romney will have a harder time keeping momentum in early-voting states.
The Iowa straw poll was an interesting foray into the minds of Republican fundraisers. It also foretells a long primary fight for whoever wants to take on President Barack Obama in the 2012 general election.
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